Is The Housing Market Really In Recovery?

The housing market appears to be in recovery. There's lot of stats to say it is. Here are three:

• Existing home sales are up and supplies are down
• New home sales are up and supplies are way down
• Pending home sales are posting at record paces

And, perhaps, most importantly, the best gauge of the housing market's health -- home values -- is showing consistent improvement. Both private-sector Case-Shiller Index and the government's own
Home Price Index showed home prices on the mend.

Foreclosures may not yet have peaked, but the worst of the housing market appears to be behind us. We still don’t know what the effect of phasing out the first time homebuyer credit will have, but for now, housing is advancing and improving in many areas.

Between the 2nd and 3rd quarter this year, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency, home values rose 0.2 percent nationally.

As we dissect the third quarter data, it's important to pick up on a few of the subtler points as compared to the second quarter.

First, geography does not appear correlated to home price improvement. Each region is represented equally in the Top 10 and spread equally throughout the list. Clearly, this isn't just a Coastal Recovery.

And second -- stunning analysts -- is that home value changes are occurring independent from foreclosure activity. For example:

1. California ranks #2 in home value improvement between Q2 and Q3 2009. Over that same period, California's Foreclosures per Capita is second-worst in the nation, behind Nevada.

2. Illinois beat the national average for home value improvement between Q2 and Q3 2009. Over that same period, though, Illinois foreclosure rate was nearly 3 times the national average.

3. Between Q2 and Q3 2009, Delaware's foreclosure activity was third-lowest in the country. Its home values, however, fell by more than any other state.

The supply-driven relationship between foreclosure rate and home prices is broken. This is because buy-side demand for homes now exceeds new supply is most U.S. markets. The inevitable result is higher prices everywhere.

Low mortgage rates, an expanded tax credit, and general optimism about housing should sustain demand through the winter. Therefore, expect home values to continue to climb further. If you plan to buy a home in 2010, consider moving up your time frame.

The best "deals" may the ones you get between now and the Super Bowl.